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(Written in May 2025) Great bullpens are valuable, but they aren’t nearly everything. The job of a pitching coach is to help translate practice results into game results. Cool pitch shapes don’t matter if they can’t get outs. I think of the Nationals "I don't care how hard you throw ball four" sign back a few year ago. The name of the game is getting outs not to throw hard or get a lot of movement. They typically correlate but the pitch shape without generating outs is effec

(Written in March 2025) Clay Holmes in his transition to starter has become one of the many MLB pitchers to begin throwing what's known as a kick change. Why does it work? A kick change is not a new pitch; it's simply become more recognizable, allowing us to better quantify what it is, why it works, and how to teach it to athletes in a practical way. This pitch is particularly effective for supinators who struggle to pronate on a traditional changeup. It tends to move mor

What makes Skubal so valuable and why a 7 year deal for $315M might make sense next year (Written in July 2025) BACKGROUND Skubal is in the midst of his fifth full MLB season and is unquestionably having the best year of his career. The 255th overall pick in the 2018 MLB Draft, Skubal made his major league debut in 2020 but had not experienced a true breakout season until 2024. Since then, he has taken the league by storm and taken an even greater step forward through the fi

Looking into why a 6 year deal for $120M might make sense for both the Pirates and Skenes (Written in June 2025) BACKGROUND Since his debut in May 2024, Paul Skenes has quickly established himself as one of Major League Baseball’s best pitchers. The 2023 first overall draft pick concluded his rookie season with 23 starts, 133 innings pitched, an 11–3 record, 1.96 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 170 strikeouts, and a 2.44 FIP. His dominance earned him a list of accolades including the fifth

With One Change he has True Starter Potential and is a Fit in the Rotation (Written in February 2025) This offseason David Stearns and the New York Mets signed pitcher Clay Holmes to a 3 year $38 million deal. Holmes had spent a little over the last 3 seasons with the Yankees as a reliever. In the last 3 seasons, he pitched to a 2.85 ERA over 189.2 innings and finished top 10 in the American League in Saves each year. The Mets, however, plan to use Holmes differently. The pl

Best metrics that indicate sustainable success for starting pitchers (Written in January 2025) Metrics and advanced analytics are invaluable tools for evaluating player performance, particularly when assessing pitchers. The way we combine and apply these metrics can significantly impact our understanding of a player’s potential for sustainable success. In this analysis, I have compiled a comprehensive list of pitching metrics that I believe best indicate the core components

A Data-Driven Analysis of Sean Manaea's Transformation (Written in November 2024) EXECUTIVE SUMMARY In 2024, Sean Manaea, a left-handed pitcher for the New York Mets, underwent a transformative adjustment that revitalized his career. In his first season with the Mets, Manaea made a rare in-season change to both his arm slot and pitch selection—modifications typically reserved for the offseason. His observation of Chris Sale's dominant performance against the Mets prompted th