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Why Swing Decisions and Contact Ability Will Be Increasingly Valued For much of the past decade, offensive player valuation across Major League Baseball has increasingly accepted an "all-or-nothing" ideology in which elevated strikeout rates are tolerated in exchange for power production. As long as a hitter could generate damage on contact, swing-and-miss and aggressive chase tendencies were often viewed as acceptable tradeoffs rather than inefficiencies. The gradual adop

Its impact on roster construction, player valuation, game strategy, and more The catcher is one of the most resource-intensive positions in baseball. It combines the highest physical workload with one of the steepest offensive penalties, and its defensive value is tied to skills that are difficult to quantify and replace. Under current roster rules, teams typically carry two catchers on a 26-man active roster, accounting for roughly 7.7% of roster spots leaguewide. What if t

How a refined pitch mix could transform the Mets' All-Star into a more consistent and reliable arm David Peterson's 2025 season told two wildly different stories. The left-hander earned his first All-Star selection after a dominant first half, posting a 3.06 ERA and 3.42 FIP through 18 starts. What followed was a massive struggle. Over his final 12 starts, Peterson's ERA drastically increased to 6.34, culminating in a brutal September where he posted a 9.72 ERA over 16.2 inn

Breaking down the contract and where both the Orioles and Mets go from here After a ton of uncertainty and a calculated bet on himself, Pete Alonso has landed with the Baltimore Orioles on a reported five-year, $155 million deal. I'm quite shocked, as my prediction was slightly off. As I said in my breakdown yesterday (seen here ), I correctly predicted the length of the deal in the 3-5 year range. However, I was off on my AAV. I predicted he would only get $30M in a three-y

How the Phillies secured their offensive anchor, the Dodgers addressed their biggest weakness, how the Mets proceed, and implications on the rest of the market Day 3 of the Winter Meetings saw the first major slew of moves that could get the rest of the market to start falling into place. The two big free agent signings of the day were Kyle Schwarber re-signing with the Phillies for 5 years, $150M and Edwin Díaz surprising everyone by signing with the Dodgers for 3 years, $6

Why theres more to the story behind Devin Williams 2025 season and why it makes perfect sense for the Mets Last week the Mets made their first major free agent signing of the offseason, inking reliever Devin Williams to a three-year, $51 million deal with $15 million deferred from 2036-2045 in $1.5 million annual increments. The contract also includes a $6 million signing bonus paid out evenly over the three years, lowering the present day value as the Mets continue to res

Why the Blue Jays might've overpaid for Cease and one change he can make to improve The Toronto Blue Jays made the first nine figure free agent signing of the offseason, inking starter Dylan Cease to a 7-year, $210M deal with $64M in deferrals. The present day value sits around $187.25M, still making it the largest free agent contract in franchise history. This surpasses the 5-year, $150M deal given to George Springer in 2021 equating to roughly $180M in 2025 dollars. While

Why this deal makes perfect sense for both Texas and New York It has been just over a week since the Rangers sent Marcus Semien to the Mets in exchange for Brandon Nimmo and a reported $5 million. It’s not all too common to see one-for-one player deals, especially involving players with substantial contracts who have been integral to their respective franchises in recent years. Semien signed with Texas as a free agent in 2022 and contributed to their first World Series champ

What makes a great pitching coach (Written in May 2025) Great bullpens are valuable, but they aren’t nearly everything. The job of a pitching coach is to help translate practice results into game results. Cool pitch shapes don’t matter if they can’t get outs. I think of the Nationals "I don't care how hard you throw ball four" sign back a few year ago. The name of the game is getting outs not to throw hard or get a lot of movement. They typically correlate but the pitch shap

(Written in March 2025) Clay Holmes in his transition to starter has become one of the many MLB pitchers to begin throwing what's known as a kick change. Why does it work? A kick change is not a new pitch; it's simply become more recognizable, allowing us to better quantify what it is, why it works, and how to teach it to athletes in a practical way. This pitch is particularly effective for supinators who struggle to pronate on a traditional changeup. It tends to move mor

What makes Skubal so valuable and why a 7 year deal for $315M might make sense next year (Written in July 2025) BACKGROUND Skubal is in the midst of his fifth full MLB season and is unquestionably having the best year of his career. The 255th overall pick in the 2018 MLB Draft, Skubal made his major league debut in 2020 but had not experienced a true breakout season until 2024. Since then, he has taken the league by storm and taken an even greater step forward through the fi

Looking into why a 6 year deal for $120M might make sense for both the Pirates and Skenes (Written in June 2025) BACKGROUND Since his debut in May 2024, Paul Skenes has quickly established himself as one of Major League Baseball’s best pitchers. The 2023 first overall draft pick concluded his rookie season with 23 starts, 133 innings pitched, an 11–3 record, 1.96 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 170 strikeouts, and a 2.44 FIP. His dominance earned him a list of accolades including the fifth

With One Change he has True Starter Potential and is a Fit in the Rotation (Written in February 2025) This offseason David Stearns and the New York Mets signed pitcher Clay Holmes to a 3 year $38 million deal. Holmes had spent a little over the last 3 seasons with the Yankees as a reliever. In the last 3 seasons, he pitched to a 2.85 ERA over 189.2 innings and finished top 10 in the American League in Saves each year. The Mets, however, plan to use Holmes differently. The pl

Best metrics that indicate sustainable success for starting pitchers (Written in January 2025) Metrics and advanced analytics are invaluable tools for evaluating player performance, particularly when assessing pitchers. The way we combine and apply these metrics can significantly impact our understanding of a player’s potential for sustainable success. In this analysis, I have compiled a comprehensive list of pitching metrics that I believe best indicate the core components

A Data-Driven Analysis of Sean Manaea's Transformation (Written in November 2024) EXECUTIVE SUMMARY In 2024, Sean Manaea, a left-handed pitcher for the New York Mets, underwent a transformative adjustment that revitalized his career. In his first season with the Mets, Manaea made a rare in-season change to both his arm slot and pitch selection—modifications typically reserved for the offseason. His observation of Chris Sale's dominant performance against the Mets prompted th