Projecting Tarik Skubal’s Value

What makes Skubal so valuable and why a 7 year deal for $315M might make sense next year

(Written in July 2025)

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BACKGROUND

Skubal is in the midst of his fifth full MLB season and is unquestionably having the best

year of his career. The 255th overall pick in the 2018 MLB Draft, Skubal made his major league

debut in 2020 but had not experienced a true breakout season until 2024. Since then, he has taken

the league by storm and taken an even greater step forward through the first half of the 2025.

His most challenging year came during his first full season back in 2021. Over the course

of 29 starts, he posted an 8–12 record with a 4.34 ERA and 1.26 WHIP, while allowing 47 walks

and an alarming 35 home runs. The 2022 and 2023 seasons were more stable but nothing special

as he hovered right around league average across most key metrics. The turning point in his

career came in 2024. Across 31 starts, he led the American League in both wins and strikeouts,

while finishing fifth in innings pitched. He recorded an 18–4 record with a 2.39 ERA, 228

strikeouts to just 35 walks, and a 0.92 WHIP. That year earned him his first All-Star selection

and resulted in him unanimously winning the American League Cy Young Award.

Skubal has continued to elevate his game in 2025. Through 18 starts, he ranks in the top

four in the American League in wins, ERA, innings pitched, strikeouts, and WHIP. He was

named to his second consecutive All-Star team this year and once again appears to be the

frontrunner for the AL Cy Young Award.

Skubal has been a central figure in the Detroit Tigers' resurgence, helping lead a pitching

staff that currently ranks second in the league in ERA. The Tigers currently have the best record

in baseball, due in large part to Skubal’s consistent dominance at the top of their rotation.

Looking ahead, he will enter the final year of team control this offseason as he reaches his final

year of arbitration eligibility. While it would be a logical time for the Tigers to pursue extension

discussions, it's worth noting that Skubal is represented by the Boras Corporation—an agency

notoriously known for generally avoiding any sort of extension prior to their clients hitting the

open market.

Given his trajectory and current performance, it is worth examining the key factors that

make him so valuable to a team. His rising value also sets the stage for what a potential contract

extension or free-agent deal could ultimately look like.

WHAT MAKES HIM VALUABLE

Skubal has become an incredibly valuable asset to the Tigers and would be one of the

most sought-after free agents on the market should he reach free agency. His value stems largely

from a rare combination of elite pure stuff and high-level command. In today’s game, it is

exceptionally uncommon for a pitcher to possess both a dominant arsenal and the ability to

consistently generate swings and misses, as well as weak contact.

Skubal’s pitch mix, by usage percentage, includes a changeup, four-seam fastball, sinker,

slider, and knuckle curve. According to FanGraphs' Stuff+ model, every pitch in his arsenal

grades out as elite. The chart below shows how each pitch has rated so far during the 2025

season. Simply put, Skubal is a unicorn.Throwing five elite pitches based on strictly the pitch

alone is extremely rare. The fact that he commands three of them at an above-league-average

level makes it even more exceptional. Every pitch in his repertoire features movement that is

significantly above average. His best pitch, the changeup, is not only located exceptionally well

but is also one of the most effective pitches in all of baseball. Overall, Skubal leads the league in

Stuff+, which reflects the dominance of his raw arsenal, while also being tied for the league lead

in Pitching+, highlighting his rare blend of stuff and command.

Beyond his elite arsenal and command, Skubal is producing outstanding results across

both advanced and traditional metrics in 2025. He ranks in the top 10% of Major League pitchers

in several key categories, including xwOBA, Hard Hit Rate, Walk Rate, Strikeout Rate, Whiff

Rate, and Chase Rate. These indicators reflect not only his ability to miss bats but also to limit

quality contact and avoid free passes. The high chase rate also demonstrates his deceptiveness.

Additionally, Skubal is throwing first-pitch strikes at a career-high rate of 70.5%, allowing him

to consistently get ahead in counts and dictate at-bats. His ability to generate weak contact is also

elite ashe induces weak contact on 6.3% of balls in play, significantly higher than the league

average of 4%. This combination of swing-and-miss stuff, control, and soft contact generation is

the perfect combination and why he’s been one of the most dominant and complete pitchers in

the game this season. This unique skillset combination makes him one of the most valuable

pitchers in the game today.

ARBITRATION OUTLOOK

With one year of team control remaining, Skubal is set to enter his final year of

arbitration eligibility going into his age 29 season. Following his breakout 2024 season, he

avoided arbitration by agreeing to a one-year, $10.15 million deal with the Tigers. Now, after

another year of sustained dominance, he appears poised for a significant raise. The highest

third-year arbitration salary ever awarded to a pitcher was $17 million to Jacob deGrom in 2019,

though he benefited from Super Two status. The highest third-year arbitration salary for a

non-Super Two pitcher was Jake Arrieta’s $15.637 million in 2017. Adjusted for inflation, those

figures equate to $21.38 million and $20.51 million, respectively. The largest single-year

arbitration raise came from Gerrit Cole, who doubled his salary from $6.75 million in 2018 to

$13 million in 2019 between his second and third arbitration years. While it’s unlikely Skubal

breaks either salary record, it’s a good marker to work off of.

One of the most comparable recent cases to Skubal is Max Fried. In 2023, during

entering his third year of arbitration at age 29, Fried agreed to a $13.5 million deal with the

Braves. Though he was a Super Two player and had a fourth year of arbitration in which he

signed for $15 million. He eventually secured a major free agent contract with the Yankees ahead

of his age-31 season, signing an eight-year, $218 million deal. Another relevant comparison is

Zac Gallen, who also signed for $13.5 million with the Diamondbacks ahead of his age 29

season and third and final year of arbitration in 2025. Below is a comparison of Skubal, Fried,

and Gallen the season prior to entering their third year of arbitration.

Gallen has experienced a bit of a down year, especially compared to his standout 2023

season, when he earned his first All-Star nod and finished third in the Cy Young voting.

Nonetheless, he remains a relevant comparison to Skubal in terms of age, performance, and

contract value. That said, Skubal is on pace to greatly surpass Gallen’s production and is also

tracking ahead of Max Fried’s as well. From a valuation standpoint, it would be reasonable to

take Fried’s $13.5M salary from 2023 and adjust it to today’s dollars, which would equate to

$14.24M, and then round up to $15M. A $15M salary for Skubal next season would align with

Fried’s fourth-year arbitration salary, which is justified by Skubal’s performance, and would fall

just under $1M shy of Jake Arrieta’s record for a third-year arbitration-eligible pitcher who was

not a Super Two. A nearly $5M raise from Skubal’s current salary would also place him among

the highest year-over-year salary increases in arbitration history for pitchers. Should he continue

his dominance in the second half, or even win a second consecutive Cy Young, he could push for

a salary in the $17–18M range, potentially breaking Jacob deGrom’s record for the highest

pitcher arbitration salary and Gerrit Cole’s record for the largest arbitration pay increase.

EXTENSION STRUCTURE

The Tigers could, and should, look to avoid an arbitration hearing with Skubal and

instead aim to keep him in the Motor City long term. Similar extensions have been executed in

the past with pitchers such as Jacob DeGrom, Luis Castillo, and, most recently, Garrett Crochet,

who signed deals near the end of their arbitration years. Crochet landed the largest extension of

the group, both in total value and AAV, signing a six-year, $170M deal with the Red Sox this

past offseason. Notably, Crochet still had two arbitration years remaining at the time and was

going into his age 26 season. Jacob DeGrom signed his five-year, $137.5 million extension with

the Mets during his final arbitration year back in 2019. Luis Castillo also signed a five-year,

$108 million extension with the Mariners entering his last year of arbitration. Both Castillo and

DeGrom were heading into their age-30 seasons at the time, similar to Skubal who will be 29 this

offseason and also heading into his final year of arbitration. As a result, Crochet’s younger age

and additional prime years explain the larger deal.

A deal structure that could benefit both sides would be a five-year, $145 million

extension, distributed as seen below. The $7 million signing bonus paid upfront is an average of

Crochet’s $4 million bonus, Castillo’s $7 million bonus, and DeGrom’s $10 million bonus. The

$22 million salary in Skubal’s final arbitration-eligible year would represent a $4–7 million

increase over my previous projection, accounting for the added years of club control. The

remaining four years would pay $29 million annually, giving the deal a clean luxury tax number

and a round $145 million total value.

The $29 million AAV slightly exceeds Crochet’s $28.3 million AAV demonstrating

Skubal’s value. From the player’s perspective, while Skubal’s total value and AAV would

technically surpass DeGrom’s deal, DeGrom’s extension adjusted to today’s dollars would be

worth just over $173 million with an AAV close to $35 million. In this context, the proposed

Skubal deal represents surplus value for the team. Currently, only five pitchers in the game earn

$30M or more annually, and none of those contracts were signed as arbitration extensions. All

were free-agent signings, with the exception of Zack Wheeler’s veteran extension. Even so, with

this proposed contract, Skubal would rank 10th in the league in total contract value for a starting

pitcher and 6th in AAV. After this deal expires, Skubal would still have the opportunity to sign a

high-AAV contract heading into his age-34 season. For comparison, Zack Wheeler signed a

three-year, $126M deal ($42M AAV) at age 33, and Jacob DeGrom signed a five-year, $185M

contract ($37M AAV) at age 34. Therefore, it is certainly feasible that Skubal could secure

another major deal after this one.

One important consideration is the inclusion of a player option. Crochet’s deal includes

an opt-out after year six, barring him spending 120+ days on the IL with a left arm injury.

Castillo has a $25 million vesting option for year six if he reaches 180 innings pitched in year

five. That clause converts into a $5 million team option if he spends 130+ days on the IL with a

UCL injury between 2025 and 2027. DeGrom’s deal also included a player opt-out after year

four, which he exercised, and a club option for a sixth year. Given that Skubal is represented by

Boras Corp, it would be unlikely for the player to relinquish much control. Though not

guaranteed, this proposal would include a player opt-out which is triggered by reaching 180

innings in year three instead of a vesting option adding an extra year like Castillo’s. This mirrors

Crochet’s structure, which ties opt-out eligibility to durability and health. Clearly, if Skubal

reaches 180 innings, he cannot also have spent 120+ days on the IL that year. If this opt-out is

triggered, it would likely be a win-win for both Skubal and the Tigers. It would likely mean that

Skubal had performed at a high level over the prior three seasons, and it would allow him to test

the market and potentially sign a larger free-agent contract at age 32.

FREE AGENCY OUTLOOK

Given his agent is Boras Corp, an agency known for wanting their players to hit the open

market, this is the most likely outcome after one more arbitration year over any sort of extension.

It will also almost unquestionably at this point result in the most money for Skubal. Once again,

the most similar free agent comparable to Skubal would be Max Fried. He received the largest

free agent contract by total value given to a left-handed starting pitcher, who also happened to

sign at 30 years old, the same age at which Skubal would. Going into 2025, Fried signed an

8-year deal with the Yankees worth $218M. Other comparisons include Corbin Burnes, who

signed at 30 for only 6 years but $210M, equating to an AAV of $35M, almost $8M more than

Fried. Blake Snell is another lefty who, like Burnes, signed a short-term, higher AAV deal. At

age 31 going into 2025, he signed a 5-year deal worth $182M. For the reasons mentioned earlier

about his rapidly increasing value and success, along with the major increase in market spending

among the big three (the Mets, Yankees, and Dodgers), Skubal is highly likely to break the total

value record for free agent starting pitchers, including Yoshinobu Yamamoto's 12-year, $325M

deal, which he signed with the Dodgers at age 25.

Only 3 pitchers in MLB have contracts longer than 7 years, with 2 of them on the

Yankees and 1 of them on the Dodgers, who was an international free agent to sign at just 25

years old. Those 3 would be Max Fried for 8 years, Gerrit Cole for 9, and Yoshinobu Yamamoto

for 12. Skubal is definitely a candidate to be on this list given his pure dominance. A good

starting place for the contract structure would be a 7-year deal as his dominance approaches

uncharted territory. It doesn't seem to be a good long-term investment for winning teams to sign

long-term free agent pitchers through their age 38 season. The only pitcher signed through his

age 38 season on a deal of a minimum of 5 years who won a World Series in the last 5 years is

Jacob DeGrom. He also did not pitch for a bulk of that 2023 season with the Rangers due to

injury. The point of this is that most winning teams do not have starting pitchers signed late in

their careers on long-term deals the same way hitters are, as pitchers tend to decline with age

more rapidly than hitters due to injury. With this in mind, I think the perfect Skubal free agent

deal would start around 7 years.

A deal that would make perfect sense for both sides involved is a 7-year deal worth

$315M. The deal would include a $15M signing bonus paid upfront for a total first-year salary of

$55M and again a similar opt-out clause as before after 2030 if he pitches 180 innings the season

prior.

I intentionally kept the deal in quite a simple structure because at the end of the day it all

boils down to one thing: money. It is all that the players want and the teams that want the players

will pay the price. The $315M doesn't break a record for total value for starting pitchers; it does,

however, break the record for all-time AAV for starting pitchers. The previous all-time AAV

record for a starting pitcher, not counting the unicorn Shohei Ohtani, was $43.3M set by both

Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander, both given out by the New York Mets. Now the Mets have

since gone in a different direction in terms of free agent pitchers, but that is not the point.

Especially in another year and a half from now, $45M a year for a pitcher as dominant and

valuable as Skubal is probably going to look more realistic. The only thing that would affect this

valuation is the potential implementation of a salary cap, or even worse a lockout, after the 2026

season. For Skubal, he would also have the ability to opt out and sign a new shorter-term, even

higher AAV deal going into his age 34 season if all goes right. Jacob deGrom did this at 34, Zack

Wheeler at 33, Max Scherzer at 37, and Verlander at 40. If Skubal continues to pitch well, he will

follow the trend and be rewarded appropriately.

FINAL THOUGHTS

Although an extension is certainly a possibility this offseason, and the Tigers will most

certainly explore that opportunity, the most likely outcome is that Skubal and the Tigers proceed

through the arbitration process this offseason, with him ultimately becoming a free agent next

offseason. With Scott Boras as his agent it is expected that Skubal would pursue the highest

possible financial compensation available on the open market. This approach aligns with Boras's

track record of securing record-breaking contracts for his elite clients.

Skubal is also approaching uncharted territory in terms of his dominance on the mound,

establishing himself as one of baseball's premier starting pitchers. Given his sustained excellence

and rapidly increasing market value, as previously discussed, he will undoubtedly command a

lucrative contract, ideally secured before the current Collective Bargaining Agreement expires

after the 2026 season. The timing of his free agency could play a huge factor as well with

unprecedented spending on elite starting pitching and the expected rush to sign prior to the

expiration of the CBA.

What makes Skubal's ascension even more remarkable is his journey as a late bloomer in

professional baseball. Selected in the ninth round of the draft, he endured three mediocre major

league seasons before finally finding his stride and transforming into the dominant ace we know

today. This development curve makes his current excellence all the more impressive and

suggests that his best years may still lie ahead. Furthermore, he is the favorite this year to capture

his second consecutive American League Cy Young Award, a truly extraordinary

accomplishment that would cement his status among the game's elite pitchers and significantly

enhance his earning potential.