Devin Williams Free Agent Contract Analysis

Why theres more to the story behind Devin Williams 2025 season and why it makes perfect sense for the Mets

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Last week the Mets made their first major free agent signing of the offseason, inking reliever Devin Williams to a three-year, $51 million deal with $15 million deferred from 2036-2045 in $1.5 million annual increments. The contract also includes a $6 million signing bonus paid out evenly over the three years, lowering the present day value as the Mets continue to reshape their roster.

Mets Offseason Outlook 

The Mets needed to revamp their bullpen coming off a disappointing 2025 season in which they failed to reach the postseason. The goal was made clear from day one: run prevention. They had already begun that process with a blockbuster trade for defensive second baseman Marcus Semien, but the pitching staff required just as much attention.

The 2025 numbers paint a clear picture of why. As a pitching staff, the Mets ranked near the bottom of the league in nearly every predictive category. They finished with the 7th most walks, 18th in earned runs, 21st in xBA, and 19th in xwOBA. With their best reliever Edwin Díaz still a free agent, it was obvious moves needed to be made. Devin Williams represents just the start of that bullpen overhaul.

Deep Dive on Devin Williams

Williams is actually coming off a pretty good year with the Yankees, though his 4.87 ERA would tell you otherwise. While it might be a down year for him personally, it was still a productive year relative to the rest of the league. While the ERA is inflated, the advanced metrics reveal a completely different story.

Williams finished in the top 8% in MLB in xSLG at .314, top 5% in xBA with a .195, and top 3% in strikeout rate, punching out 34.7% of all batters faced. His ability to miss barrells remained elite as well, posting a 35% chase rate, good for 97th percentile, and a 37.7% whiff rate which puts him in the 99th percentile. Most tellingly, his xERA checked in at just 3.09, over a full run and a half lower than his actual ERA. His 2.68 FIP tells a similar story of a pitcher who performed significantly better than his traditional numbers suggest.

Williams also continued doing what he's done throughout his career: eliminate hard contact and keep the ball on the ground. His 35.7% hard hit rate ranked in the 85th percentile, while his 45% ground ball rate placed him in the 66th percentile. These soft contact ability is exactly what the Mets needed. Below shows Devin Williams 2025 numbers compared to the MLB average as well as where the Mets pitchers finished in 2025.

` As you can see, even in a down year, Williams was drastically better in every category. However, it wasn't all glamorous. The hard hit rate and xERA were still the highest of Williams' career, and his strikeout rate represented his lowest mark since 2021. He also surrendered five home runs, the most in any season since 2021, though four came in a brutal three-week span that skewed his overall numbers. Additionally, Williams left 10 inherited runners on base throughout the season, seven of whom scored after he exited, inflating his ERA beyond what his actual performance deserved. On the positive side, he was able to cut his walk rate down to 9.7%, his best mark since 2020.

The Outlier Changeup

The reason Williams can eliminate hard contact, generate swing-and-miss, and keep the ball on the ground even in what could be considered a down year is a result of his outlier changeup. In 2025, this pitch produced an Offspeed Run Value of 7, good for the 94th percentile. It remains one of the most devastating pitches in baseball.

This pitch is no secret. You know exactly what you're getting with Williams. He's been essentially a two-pitch pitcher his entire career, with his changeup and four-seam fastball combining for over 95% of his total pitches in every season. In 2025, he threw slightly more changeups than four-seamers, accounting for 52.4% and 47.4% of his arsenal respectively.

Using Fangraphs' Stuff+ model, Williams' changeup graded out to an elite 125. Not counting 2024, when he missed four months with a stress fracture in his back and only appeared in 22 games, this was the best grade his changeup had received since his first All-Star season in 2022. His fastball was also slightly above average, grading out to a 103, though this represented its lowest mark since 2021.

Williams didn't have trouble locating his changeup either. Fangraphs' Location+ model graded his changeup at 109, the highest of his career. The struggle, however, came with the command of his fastball, which graded out to just 93. Williams has always battled below-average fastball command and has never gotten that grade above 100 in his career.

Interestingly, his changeup actually produced worse results in 2025, posting a higher xBA, xSLG, and xwOBA than his fastball. There are plenty of explanations for this, but the most likely explanation is his inability to consistently command the fastball, which allowed hitters to sit on the changeup. No matter how good a pitch is, if a hitter knows it's coming and can look for just one pitch, the advantage changes in favor of the hitter.

A New Addition to the Arsenal

At his opening press conference with the Mets, Williams mentioned that he's playing around with the idea of adding either a cutter or gyro slider to his arsenal. This would be extremely beneficial for him and could unlock another level of effectiveness.

Both his fastball and changeup move armside, highlighted by his extreme outlier changeup movement profile. In 2025, his changeup averaged -4.8 inches of induced vertical break and 19.2 inches of armside run, while his fastball sat at 15.7 inches of IVB and 12.8 inches of armside run. For context, the average right-handed pitcher's changeup in 2025 averaged 4.1 inches of IVB and only 14.4 inches of armside run.

By adding a cutter or gyro slider, even if only thrown 5-10% of the time, Williams could establish an east-west movement profile and keep hitters off balance. It would be a perfect option to throw backdoor to lefties or bury back-foot to keep them honest. It's also worth noting that Williams' arm angle has steadily declined every year, dropping from 31 degrees in 2020 to 26 degrees in 2022 to just 21 degrees in 2025. This trend could actually help him create more horizontal movement on a potential slider heading into 2026.

Why He Fits The Mets

Devin Williams will be far from the last move the Mets make this offseason. The bullpen remains a priority, and several options remain on the market. Edwin Díaz would obviously pair perfectly with Williams to solidify the back end, while Robert Suarez represents another intriguing option on a similar short-term three-year deal structure.

The Mets also get back an important bullpen piece this year in lefty A.J. Minter, who will provide a late-inning option from the left side. Ideally, Minter pitches in either the seventh or eighth inning before handing things over to Williams, depending on whether the team is able to sign Díaz or Suarez.

Mets Financial Assessment 

With the deferrals built into the contract, Williams will account for roughly $14.75 million in average annual value toward the competitive balance tax this year and each of the following two years, according to Spotrac. The site currently has the Mets' payroll at $248.74 million and projects them to start opening day just under $275 million. That figure is likely to increase drastically with any major free agent signing still to come.

As a CBT payor for the fifth consecutive year, the Mets face some hefty tax penalties. They'll pay a 50% tax on payroll between $244 million and $264 million, a 62% tax between $264 million and $284 million, and a 95% tax between $284 million and $304 million as well  as their first pick in the Rule 4 draft being moved down 10 spots. If they exceed $304 million, they'll face a 110% tax on anything over that threshold.

Luckily for the Mets, they have an owner committed to winning, and these luxury tax penalties won't stop their offseason spending spree. They'll continue to make smart investments to build a championship-caliber roster. Devin Williams represents the perfect example of the type of player where the baseline numbers don't tell the whole story. There's far more value here than initially meets the eye. Williams is the perfect fit for this Mets bullpen over the next three years, and his arrival signals the importance of smart, calculated investments.