Winter Meetings Day 3 Recap and Analysis

How the Phillies secured their offensive anchor, the Dodgers addressed their biggest weakness, how the Mets proceed, and implications on the rest of the market

---

Day 3 of the Winter Meetings saw the first major slew of moves that could get the rest of the market to start falling into place. The two big free agent signings of the day were Kyle Schwarber re-signing with the Phillies for 5 years, $150M and Edwin Díaz surprising everyone by signing with the Dodgers for 3 years, $69M. Schwarber re-signing with the Phillies wasn't all that surprising, however Díaz to the Dodgers caught many people off guard. I want to dive deeper into the value these teams received, the implications for the Phillies, Dodgers, as well as the Mets after losing Díaz, and how it can affect the rest of the free agent market. 

Schwarber 's Value

Earlier in the offseason, I had predicted that Kyle Schwarber would get a deal in the 3-5 year range taking him through his age-37 season somewhere close to the $30M AAV range. I used the Christian Walker contract as a comparable as Walker signed for 3 years, $60M with the Astros at age 33, providing a baseline for an aging power hitter entering his mid-30s. However, I figured Schwarber would get more in AAV due to his superior power and the season he just finished. Schwarber's deal came in right on target at 5 years, $150M, which equates to a $30M AAV.

Schwarber is coming off a career best year in which he posted career-highs across the board: 56 home runs which led the NL, 132 RBI leading all of MLB, a 152 wRC+, and 4.9 fWAR. He also appeared in all 162 games. His xSLG of .572 , barrel rate of 20.8%, career best hard-hit rate of 59.6% , and his average exit velocity of 94.3 mph placed him in the 98th percentile or above in each metric. Schwarber also had a near even platoon split in 2025 further increasing his value. These are elite power numbers which were always going to command a significant valuation despite entering his age 33 season, and primarily being a DH. 

Fangraphs’ Steamer projections project a 2.7 fWAR for Schwarber in 2026. This is a huge dropoff from his 4.9 fWAR in 2025. For purposes of simple calculation, we’ll assume a 3.3 WAR for next season and using a conservative aging curve projection, I’m going to assume his WAR decreases by 0.3 per year as I expect him to retain much of his power as he will be a DH and not in the field everyday. This would equate to approximately 13.5 WAR over the life of the contract. Using the same rough $10M per WAR for free agents that I used in my Dylan Cease analysis (see here), this equates to $135M in value. The $150M guarantee represents a slight overpay of approximately 10%; however, as I’ve said in the past, it is necessary in free agency to outbid other teams to obtain the player. The free agent market is not perfect by any means, does not appropriately value risk, and rarely provides perfect value matches, especially at the top of the market where bidding wars drive prices. The Phillies needed to pay a premium to secure offensive continuity, and Schwarber's presence provides exactly that.

The primary risk lies in age-related decline. Schwarber will be 37 years old in the final year of this contract, and history shows that power hitters don't age gracefully. However, being a DH and not playing the field everyday will provide some downside protection. Even if the power declines, his on-base ability as shown by his ability to draw walks in the 97th percentile should keep him valuable. 

Phillies Outlook 

The Phillies entered this offseason from a position of strength but also urgency. They won 96 games and captured their second consecutive NL East title, yet fell short in the NLDS against the eventual champion Dodgers. Their offense ranked top-five in MLB across all three triple-slash categories and finished top-10 in home runs with 212. Schwarber was the engine driving much of that production, and losing him would have created a massive hole in their lineup construction.

Beyond the raw production, Schwarber's ability to set the tone as a leadoff hitter who hit 38 home runs from that spot makes him irreplaceable in their offense. The Phillies roster is built to win now, with Bryce Harper, 133 wRC+ in 2025, and Trea Turner who had a 125 wRC+ in 2025, they couldn’t afford to gamble on replacing 56 home runs and 132 RBI.

As far as a competitive balance tax perspective, at $30M AAV, Schwarber will account for a significant but manageable portion of their payroll. He is currently their second highest paid player on the roster after Zack Wheeler. The Phillies are projected to have a payroll around $290M in 2026 per Spotrac, putting them well into luxury tax territory surpassing the second threshold of $284M and they could very easily surpass the last threshold of $304M. This will be their fifth straight year as a CBT payor, and they will face the highest level of penalties in each threshold as a result. However, I don’t see them slowing down as they have shown willingness to spend to compete.

With Schwarber reportedly locked in, the Phillies can now focus on their remaining needs. The bullpen requires reinforcement after posting a 4.27 ERA in 2025, ranking 20th in MLB. The best options on the market include Robert Suarez and Pete Fairbanks. They also could look for a reunion with Seranthony Dominguez. The outfield depth also needs attention, particularly a right-handed bat to complement their left-heavy lineup. 

The Phillies' next moves will determine whether they can take the final step from division winner to World Series contender. Retaining Schwarber was essential, but it's merely the foundation. They need to add 2-3 more quality pieces to address their weaknesses and maximize their championship opportunity. 

Diaz’s Value

Edwin Díaz's 3-year, $69M contract with the Dodgers represents the highest AAV ever for a relief pitcher at $23M per year, surpassing his previous contract with the Mets at $20.4M AAV. The Dodgers are paying premium dollars for premium performance, and Díaz's 2025 season justified every penny they're committing.

Díaz dominated in 2025, posting a 1.63 ERA, 2.28 FIP, and 0.87 WHIP across 66.1 innings striking out 38% of batters and walking just 8.1%. Among pitchers with at least 50 innings, he led the NL in ERA and strikeout rate, while ranking second in WHIP and xBA. He struck out batters at the highest rate of his career, got hitters to chase 30.5% and held opponents to a .133 batting average against his fastball.

The underlying metrics validate his elite status. Díaz ranked in the 99th percentile in xERA, xBA, whiff percentage, and strikeout percentage. His ground ball rate, chase percentage, and average exit velocity against all were well above average. Batters managed just a .179 batting average with a .269 slugging percentage against his devastating slider. 2025 was prime Edwin Diaz.

The Dodgers badly needed bullpen help as even though they won a second consecutive championship, their bullpen ranked 21st in the MLB with a 4.27 ERA. This was in large part to Tanner Scott and Kirby Yates. They were fortunate enough to put a band aid on the problem by moving starter Roki Sasaki to the bullpen. This turned out to obviously be successful but they have publicly stated their desire to move Roki back to the rotation.

The risk here is primarily injury-related. Díaz missed all of 2023 after suffering a torn patellar tendon while celebrating during the World Baseball Classic. In 2024, he dealt with a shoulder impingement and posted a 3.52 ERA with seven blown saves. However, his 2025 bounce-back season suggests he's fully healthy and back to elite form. At 31 years old, and turning 32 in March, he should have three productive years left before significant age-related decline becomes a concern. It becomes interesting when he hits the market again going into his age 35 season. 

One potential warning sign in Díaz's profile is his quality of contact numbers. His hard-hit rate regressed from the 97th percentile in 2024 to the 57th percentile in 2025, while his average exit velocity remained slightly elevated at 88.5 mph. While neither number is alarming given his elite strikeout and swinging-strike rates, it's worth monitoring as he ages. If hitters start making better contact against him, the margin for error shrinks considerably.

Dodgers Outlook

The Dodgers won the 2025 World Series, but it was despite their bullpen, not because of it. Their relievers combined for a 4.27 ERA and blew 27 saves. Tanner Scott, signed to a 4-year, $72M deal the previous offseason, posted a 4.74 ERA in his first season and led the league in blown saves with 10. Kirby Yates spent time on the injured list three separate times. Blake Treinen posted a 6.75 ERA in the playoffs. The bullpen was a disaster that nearly cost them a championship.

Adding Díaz provides the Dodgers with exactly what they lacked in a true shutdown closer who can be relied upon in the highest-leverage situations. Díaz now slots into the ninth inning, pushing Scott into a setup role alongside Alex Vesia and Anthony Banda. This depth is crucial for a team that has dealt with recent bullpen injuries and underperformance.

The Dodgers have the luxury of being able to afford this move financially. Despite being projected at a $342M payroll per Spotrac next year, nearly a full $100M over the base tax of $244, they have consistently shown the ability to spend as a big market team with committed ownership. Díaz's $23M AAV is substantial, but it's worth the value particularly for a team like the Dodgers. Given their history as a CBT payor, they are in the highest luxury tax bracket with penalties reaching 110% on overages over $304M and their highest selection in the Rule 4 Draft being dropped 10 spots.

With Díaz secured, the Dodgers can now turn their attention to their remaining needs. They could turn their attention to an impact outfielder. Non Kyle Tucker fits could include a reunion with Cody Bellinger, or look to the trade market for a guy like Steven Kwan. The infield depth could also use a boost as well. By signing Diaz, they have already addressed their biggest need of the offseason. 

Impact for the Mets

The Mets will be more than just fine without the return of Diaz. They have already signed Devin Williams to a 3-year, $51M deal (for more on that click here). Williams will now in all likelihood become their replacement closer. Williams is not just any replacement as he has consistently been one of the games’ best relievers. 

The Mets could however still look external to add to the back end of their bullpen needs. As I’ve repeatedly said, Robert Suarez, who led the NL with 40 saves and posted a 2.97 ERA in 2025 would be great to put in the 9th inning behind Williams. Suarez would be costly, but would provide the elite ninth-inning reinforcement to pair with Williams. Pete Fairbanks represents another option the Mets could choose to pursue.

They could also pivot to internal options and free up resources for other needs. A.J. Minter is returning from injury and exercised his $11M player option, providing a left-handed setup option in front of Devin Williams. Brooks Raley posted a 2.45 ERA after returning from Tommy John surgery. Combined with Williams, Minter, and Raley, the back end of the Mets bullpen will still be solid though it is likely they are not done with bullpen acquisitions just yet.

The financial savings from losing Díaz could be reallocated elsewhere. They could use it towards re-signing Pete Alonso, adding a frontline starter, a center fielder, or pursuing other offensive or even defensive upgrades. 

Impact On The Rest of The Market

These two signings set important benchmarks that will ripple throughout the rest of the free agent market. Schwarber's $30M AAV establishes the price point for elite DH/power bat types, which directly impacts Pete Alonso's market. Alonso, coming off a 38-homer, 126-RBI season at age 30, now has a clearer sense of his value. Teams will also turn their attention to him as the top power back is now off the market. If Schwarber commands $30M AAV at 32 over five years with significant defensive limitations, Alonso, who profiles similarly, will likely get a deal around the same 3-5 year range. A deal at 3 years might command an AAV of around $30M while a deal of 5 years will likely drop closer to $25M in AAV. The challenge for Alonso is how he projects as a power first basemen. Historically power hitting first basemen with large contracts haven’t panned out well. This is why a deal closer to the Christian Walker structure would make sense for teams. Cody Bellinger will likely see a similar deal as well though is likely to get closer to the 5-7 year range given his defensive versatility. 

Díaz's $23M AAV resets the closer market at a higher level than expected and has immediate implications for Robert Suarez. Suarez directly. Though older than Diaz, he now has significant leverage in negotiations as the highest leverage reliever available. If Díaz commands $23M per year, Suarez will likely command a deal in the 3-year, $45-60M range just under Diaz as he will already be 35 next year and will also make him one of the highest-paid relievers in baseball.

Pete Fairbanks represents another interesting case. Despite injury concerns, he posted a 2.83 ERA with 27 saves in 2025 and has shown elite stuff when healthy. He likely lands in the 2-year, $24-28M range, making him a cost-effective alternative to Suarez for teams unwilling to pay top dollar.

The broader impact extends to other relievers as well. Quality setup men such as Jordan Romano, Tommy Kahnle, and Kyle Finnegan should see their markets improve as teams who miss out on Díaz and Suarez look for alternatives. Expect the reliever market to move rapidly over the next week as teams scramble to fill their bullpen needs before the best options are gone.

Conclusion

Day 3 of the Winter Meetings delivered on its promise of major moves that reshape rosters and set market benchmarks. The Phillies secured offensive continuity by retaining their most productive hitter, accepting a slight overpay in exchange for eliminating the risk of trying to replace irreplaceable production. Schwarber's disciplined approach and platoon neutrality provide downside protection even as he ages, making this a calculated gamble worth taking for a team in championship mode.

The Dodgers fixed their most glaring weakness by adding the best closer on the market. Díaz gives them a true shutdown option in the ninth inning, something they desperately lacked despite winning the World Series. The contract carries injury risk and the potential for relief pitcher volatility, but Díaz's track record of excellence and dominant 2025 season make this a worthwhile investment for a team operating with championship expectations.

The Mets, meanwhile, will be okay though should continue to look externally to strengthen the bullpen. Williams is a quality replacement, and will perform like one. How they choose to allocate the financial savings and whether they add another high-leverage reliever will ultimately determine how successful they are in 2026. Losing Díaz hurts, but it may force the Mets to build a deeper, more balanced bullpen rather than relying so heavily on one elite arm.

These signings represent exactly what the Winter Meetings are meant to deliver: big moves that create clarity and set the market in motion. As other free agents and teams react to these deals, expect the dominoes to continue falling rapidly. The market now knows what elite talent costs, and teams must decide whether they're willing to pay the premium or pivot to alternative strategies. The next few days will reveal who's truly committed to winning now and who's willing to be patient in their roster construction.