Pete Alonso Contract Breakdown and Analysis

Breaking down the contract and where both the Orioles and Mets go from here

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After a ton of uncertainty and a calculated bet on himself, Pete Alonso has landed with the Baltimore Orioles on a reported five-year, $155 million deal. I'm quite shocked, as my prediction was slightly off. As I said in my breakdown yesterday (seen here), I correctly predicted the length of the deal in the 3-5 year range. However, I was off on my AAV. I predicted he would only get $30M in a three-year deal and closer to $25M in a five-year deal. I didn't think he was going to beat Schwarber's deal and sign for a higher AAV at the same length. Nonetheless, I want to dive deeper to break down the contract value, what this means for the rest of Baltimore's offseason, and how the Mets can replace Alonso.

Contract Breakdown

Alonso's five-year, $155 million contract ($31M AAV) positions him as the second-highest paid first baseman by AAV, second only to Vlad Guerrero Jr., who also happens to be five years younger. To evaluate whether Baltimore got value or overpaid, we need to project his expected production and compare it against market rates.

Coming off a 2025 season where Alonso posted a 141 wRC+, 144 OPS+, and 38 home runs, he also had strong underlying metrics, finishing in the 96th percentile or higher in xwOBA, xSLG, Average Exit Velocity, Barrel%, and Hard Hit Rate. However, he has a terrible defensive profile with -9 OAA, good for just the second percentile, and his -8 Fielding Run Value puts him in just the eighth percentile. Both his OAA and FRV in 2025 were the worst of his career after previously putting up the worst defensive numbers of his career just the season prior in 2024. He's very clearly going to profile as a DH within 2-3 years.

Another important thing to consider here is the Park Factor. The Orioles moved in their left field wall by varying distances of 9-22 feet in 2022, so using a three-year rolling park factor would be misleading. Looking specifically at the 2025 season with the modified dimensions, Oriole Park at Camden Yards posted a 108 Right-Handed Hitter Home Run Park Factor, tying it with Sutter Health Park (Athletics), Chase Field (Diamondbacks), and American Family Field (Brewers) for 9th-highest in baseball. For comparison, Citi Field had just a 95 Right-Handed Hitter Home Run Park Factor in 2025, ranking 18th. This change should benefit Alonso, who's built his reputation on power hitting. Playing 81 home games in a park where right-handed hitters average 8% more home runs, compared to previous home where they hit 5% fewer, projects to boost his power numbers at least slightly.

Fangraphs' Steamer projections already project a sharp decline just next year. They project a WAR of 2.3 compared to 3.6 in 2025. This is likely due to his roughly league-average walk rate and chase rate, combined with his below-average whiff rate and strikeout rate. From a pure WAR-to-dollar calculation, teams spend roughly anywhere from $8M to $10M per WAR. That means Alonso would have to produce at least 15.5 WAR over the length of the five years for Baltimore to get appropriate value on Alonso. While certainly possible, it's highly unlikely given his projected decline as he approaches his mid-30s. As I stated in yesterday's recap, however, free agency is not a perfect system by any means and does not accurately value risk, as the top of the market turns into a bidding war to acquire top talent.

However, context matters significantly here. The premium is justified when you consider Baltimore's specific roster construction needs. Baltimore's first basemen last year finished 22nd in xSLG, and DH’s finished 24th. Coby Mayo and Ryan Mountcastle took up most of the playing time at first base last year, combining for 126 games at the position. As a team, they finished 17th in xSLG. They had a clear need for power, as their first basemen and DHs weren't just below-average production; rather it was a catastrophic black hole in the middle of their lineup. Alonso immediately converts a bottom-third position group into a top-ten asset. Interestingly enough, the Mets finished first in first basemen xSLG, as Alonso played 160 games at the position. The marginal value of upgrading from replacement level to elite production at one position is worth more than adding incremental wins elsewhere.

The risk profile skews heavily toward the back end of the contract. First basemen with power-dependent profiles historically age poorly as seen recently with someone like Kris Bryant, but historically Chris Davis and Prince Fielder. Alonso will be 35 in the final year. His defensive metrics are already below average, and further erosion will likely force him into a DH-only role. If we're being realistic, Years 4-5 likely produce negative surplus value. Baltimore had to overpay on the backend to get the production for Years 1-3, when Alonso should still be productive and their young core is cost-controlled. The final two years are effectively the cost of acquisition.

Verdict: Overpay in absolute terms, but strong value given Baltimore's specific needs.

Orioles Outlook

This signing fundamentally changes Baltimore's 2026 outlook. It's also different from their recent approach. For years, they've built through the draft, player development, and selective trades. They have a young core of Basallo, Westburg, Mayo, Kjerstad, Holiday, Cowser, and Henderson, who will all be with the team through at least 2028. The Alonso contract will by far be their biggest contract in 2026, nearly double the next highest at Tyler O'Neill's $16.5M, as they look to capitalize on their opportunity and make a strong push to contend.

From a lineup construction perspective, Alonso slots perfectly into the four-hole, providing the middle-of-the-order power they lacked. Baltimore's projected lineup now features elite on-base ability at the top with Holliday and Henderson, plus power throughout the order. The real question is how they optimize at-bats for younger guys like Basallo, Mayo, and other developing bats while maximizing Alonso's playing time.

Mayo presents an interesting roster crunch. He's now lacking a clear path to everyday at-bats with Alonso blocking first base. The smart play is exploring Mayo's trade value while it remains high. He could headline a package for frontline starting pitching, which is Baltimore's most glaring remaining need. Teams like the Mariners, Brewers, or Marlins could be logical fits.

Rutschman presents an interesting case as well. Having just signed their top prospect, catcher Samuel Basallo, to an extension, it's a clear priority to get him consistent playing time and let him develop at the big league level. Rutschman has also struggled the last few years, though two years of team control will help his trade value, as he's now an expendable piece for Baltimore.

Going back to the rotation, Baltimore cannot compete for a championship with their current starting five. A 4.65 ERA from starters ranked 24th in baseball. They need at least one more impact arm, ideally two. The free agent market still has options, including Tatsuya Imai or Framber Valdez. They could also look to the trade market for a guy like Freddy Peralta or Edward Cabrera, as I previously mentioned.

The bullpen already improved significantly with the Helsley addition, giving them a true lockdown closer who looks to bounce back after a rough second half. They need one more high-leverage arm but can find that value in the trade market or through internal development. It's not necessary to overspend on setup relievers when rotation needs are more pressing.

Resource allocation is critical here. The Orioles are only projected to have a $167M payroll per Spotrac in 2026. Last year they spent $175M. Assuming they want to stay under the $244M base threshold, and even more likely they stay under $200M, they have plenty of room to work with This is in large part due to such a young core, which is why they were able to spend a premium on Alonso. That's enough for either two elite starters or multiple complementary pieces. My recommendation would be to deploy that capital toward a big frontline starter rather than spreading it across multiple mid-tier arms. Championship-caliber rotations are built on top-end talent, not depth.

Baltimore is in a great spot to compete in 2026. Their core is young, talented, and cost-controlled through at least 2028. But the AL East is going to be a gauntlet. Baltimore must maximize this opportunity by adding the final pieces now, not waiting for prospects to develop. Alonso was Step one. Frontline pitching is Step two.

Mets Outlook

Letting Alonso walk was the correct organizational decision, even if it's unpopular with fans. As I mentioned before, Alonso was severely overpaid and is a huge financial risk and commitment that limits roster flexibility down the road.

The financial math here is straightforward. At $31M AAV over five years, Alonso would have consumed resources that can be deployed more efficiently across multiple roster weaknesses. The Mets' 2025 collapse wasn't caused by lacking one more power bat. Rather, it was caused by catastrophic pitching and defensive breakdowns. Their rotation ranked 18th in ERA at 4.13, and their bullpen was inconsistent down the stretch. Allocating $155M toward pitching generates more wins than locking it into a declining first baseman.

There are multiple options for a first base replacement. The most obvious move is moving Vientos from third base to first base, where his offensive profile plays and his defensive limitations become less damaging. Vientos struggled mightily in 2025 but showed he can perform at the major league level in 2024. This also creates an opening for Baty at third base, where his defensive improvements in 2025 were impressive, putting him in the 69th percentile in OAA. His .748 OPS with strong defense makes him a valuable piece.

The other option would be Cody Bellinger. The Mets could sign Bellinger and put him directly at first base, or they can put him in center until number-two prospect Carson Benge is ready. Then, they would be able to slide Bellinger back over to first. This would also pair a big bat with Soto. Having Alonso behind Soto last year was important to make sure Soto got pitches to hit. The Mets currently lack that right now and would be in danger of Soto not seeing pitches to hit and drawing a ton of walks. Bellinger could provide a solution to this issue. His defensive flexibility certainly helps and makes him the perfect fit for the Mets. 

They also need to address the pitching staff. The Mets desperately need two things: frontline rotation help and bullpen reinforcement. They've already addressed the backend of the bullpen with Devin Williams signing, but they need additional high-leverage arms. They could look to Robert Suarez or Pete Fairbanks as I mentioned in my article yesterday. The saved Alonso money could be deployed here if not at Bellinger.

The other route would be the trade route. The trade market lets you target specific skillsets with known quantities and put an appropriate value on it, as opposed to free agency. The Mets should be aggressive in exploring trade options for starting pitchers. Tarik Skubal is the biggest name rumored, as he's entering his contract year and the Tigers could look to trade him if they don't extend him to get peak value out of him. However, a more realistic option would be the aforementioned Freddy Peralta or even MacKenzie Gore. They have the prospect capital to make meaningful deals, and their desire to compete in 2026 demands urgency.

The Mets have plenty of resources to make big moves. They've openly stated their financial backing to acquire any free agent, and they also have the prospect capital and roster flexibility to make any appropriate trade. The question is execution. The process is right as they look to acquire proper value and not get themselves in financial trouble or roster limitations down the road.

Moving Forward

The Alonso signing represents Baltimore's commitment to be an aggressive contender. They paid a premium, but the strategic fit is strong, and their opportunity demands action given their massive financial flexibility with such a young core. Adding frontline pitching completes their transformation into a legitimate World Series threat.

For the Mets, walking away from Alonso demonstrates tremendous discipline. Allocating resources toward areas that generate more wins and proper value is critical to avoid limitations down the road. The challenge is converting financial flexibility into roster improvement through smart acquisitions.

For Pete Alonso, he took a critical bet on himself that worked out. After turning down a seven-year, $158M deal in 2023, he will end up making $205.5M over that same length.

Both teams face critical junctures. Baltimore must capitalize on their young core's cost-controlled years by adding complementary pieces now. The Mets must look to improve their rotation, center field, and potentially reinforce their rotation and look to add a power bat. How each organization deploys its remaining resources will determine whether these decisions look brilliant or misguided twelve months from now.

The market dynamics created by this signing also matter. With Alonso off the board, teams seeking power bats have fewer options, potentially driving up prices for remaining free agents. Baltimore acted decisively and got their target. Now they need to maintain that aggressiveness in addressing rotation needs. The Mets have their plan in place to address other areas of need it just takes time to develop.