Breaking Down the Metrics of a Career Revival

A Data-Driven Analysis of Sean Manaea's Transformation

(Written in November 2024)

---

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

In 2024, Sean Manaea, a left-handed pitcher for the New York Mets, underwent a

transformative adjustment that revitalized his career. In his first season with the Mets, Manaea

made a rare in-season change to both his arm slot and pitch selection—modifications typically

reserved for the offseason. His observation of Chris Sale's dominant performance against the

Mets prompted the decision, leading Manaea to adopt a similar pitching approach. The

adjustment, which lowered his arm slot and significantly altered his pitch mix, notably

eliminating his slider and cutter, resulted in marked improvements in pitch effectiveness,

including higher whiff rates, reduced hard-hit rate, and a decline in xwOBA. By the end of the

2024 season, Manaea achieved a career-high WAR of 2.8, surpassing preseason projections and

cementing his role as a key contributor in the Mets' return to the NLCS for the first time in nine

years. The statistics and data used are from Baseball Savant unless otherwise noted.

BACKGROUND *Data from Fangraphs, unless otherwise noted

Sean Manaea joined the New York Mets in January 2024, signing a two-year, $28 million

free-agent contract that included a player option for the 2025 season, which he now opted out of.

Before joining the Mets, Manaea was selected by the Kansas City Royals in the first round (34th

overall) of the 2013 MLB First-Year Player Draft out of Indiana State University. The

32-year-old left-hander had accumulated over seven years of Major League service time with the

Oakland Athletics, San Diego Padres, and San Francisco Giants before he arrived in New York.

The Mets took a strategic risk on Manaea, who was only two years removed from a

career-worst 2022 season with the Padres. In that year, Manaea made 30 appearances (28 starts)

and posted an 8-9 record with a 4.96 ERA, a 4.53 FIP, and a minimal 1.1 WAR over 158 innings.

In his only postseason appearance that year, he lasted just 1.1 innings, surrendering five earned

runs on four hits—including a home run—and issuing two walks. However, that postseason

marked a turning point in his career. Immediately following the disappointing outing, Manaea

reached out to Chris Langin, the director of pitching at Driveline, and the two began a

comprehensive overhaul of his pitching mechanics (Sammon, 2024). This partnership proved

pivotal in altering the trajectory of Manaea’s career, though the most significant change was yet

to come.

According to ZiPS preseason projections, Manaea was expected to finish the 2024 season

with a 6-7 record over 15 starts and 29 total appearances. His projected ERA was 4.54, with a

FIP of 4.26 and a WAR of 1.4 over 113 innings.

Using Statcast data, up until July 25, Manaea had been performing well. Through his start

on July 24 against the Yankees, he had posted a 6-4 record with a 3.74 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, a .224

batting average against, with 101 strikeouts. His performance was set to take a drastic

improvement in the games that followed.

On July 25, 2024, while Chris Sale started for the Braves against the Mets at Citi Field,

Manaea, who was not playing in the game, observed from the first-base dugout. Sale was a

leading contender for the National League Cy Young Award at the time, having struck out 9 Mets

batters over 7.1 innings. Manaea noticed that Sale's success stemmed partly from a significantly

lower release point than league average, prompting Manaea to make the rare decision to alter his

mechanics midseason to replicate Sale’s approach (Britton, 2024). Sale’s 11° arm angle was the

fourth lowest among qualified lefties and ninth lowest among all qualified pitchers (Statcast

Search). Mets pitching coach Jeremy Hefner credited Manaea's curiosity, work ethic, and

athleticism as key factors that allowed him to make this significant change during the course of

the season (Britton, 2024).

RELEASE POINT

The most significant adjustment in Manaea's 2024 season was the modification of his arm

slot and release point. Prior to July 25, Manaea threw 61.6% of his total pitches for the season.

At that time, his average release point occurred at a vertical height of 5.57 feet and a horizontal

distance of 2.48 feet to the right, from the batter’s perspective. After July 25, Manaea made a

noticeable shift in his mechanics, with his release point dropping to an average height of 5.24

feet and moving over a foot out to the right, reaching 3.61 feet. The accompanying graphs below

provide a detailed comparison, and overlay, of his release points before and after July 25, along

with a breakdown of his average vertical and horizontal release points throughout the season.

The month-to-month breakdown reveals a sharp increase in Manaea’s horizontal release

point from late July through the end of the season, while the vertical release graph demonstrates

a significant decline over the same period. This midseason shift in Manaea’s arm angles is

particularly noteworthy, as it creates an entirely new visual for hitters to track the ball out of his

hand. For hitters who faced him earlier in the season, they are now contending with a vastly

different pitcher.

From a mechanical standpoint, prior to July 25, Manaea released his sinker from an arm

slot of 25°. Following the adjustment, his arm slot dropped by 10° to 15° (Adler, 2024).

Similarly, his sweeper, which had been released from an average arm slot of 29°, dropped 7° to

22° after the adjustment (Adler, 2024). Over the course of the season, including the 61.6% of

pitches thrown prior to the adjustment, Manaea posted the 9th lowest release point among

qualified left-handed pitchers. His individual arm angles, as well as the month-to-month decline

in angle, are illustrated in the graphs below, showing a pronounced drop-off in August and

September.

The adjustment in Manaea’s arm slot significantly impacts hitters' perceptions and

reactions. The pitch now appears to come from an unconventional angle, resembling a second

baseman’s throw, which creates an unsettling at-bat for opposing hitters (Kennedy, 2024). This

shift in mechanics also introduces considerable horizontal movement, particularly challenging

for left-handed batters (Kennedy, 2024). Following the adjustment, Manaea’s sweeper, changeup, and four seam all saw increases in average horizontal movement. The sweeper, for example,

increased from 12.9 inches of glove-side movement prior to July 25 to 13.1 inches after the

adjustment. The changeup showed the most significant increase, jumping from 13.8 inches of

arm-side run to 15.5 inches. Similarly, the fastball exhibited a slight increase, rising from 12.2

inches to 12.4 inches of arm-side run. This shift in both movement and release point not only

alters the trajectory of Manaea's pitches but also fundamentally changes how hitters perceive and

react to his offerings. With a new arm angle and increased horizontal movement, batters are now

facing a new and improved version of Manaea that presents a completely different visual and

spatial challenge than they saw earlier in the season. The pitches themselves are entirely refined.

By positioning himself more to the side of the ball rather than on top of it, Manaea alters

the spin profile of his pitches, reducing backspin and generating a more horizontal spin. This

adjustment diminishes induced vertical break, leading to a deceptive trajectory that diverges from

the conventional looks hitters are accustomed to facing. Manaea’s signature pitch, the sinker,

exemplifies this concept. At release, the ball spins from a 10:15 orientation while approaching

the plate from a 10:00 perspective relative to the pitcher generating just 15 minutes of seam shift.

For the season, the sinker ranks 22nd lowest in spin direction among 65 qualified left-handed

pitchers, even when accounting for the 61.4% of his pitches thrown prior to the adjustment.

By adopting a lower arm slot reminiscent of Chris Sale, Manaea effectively enhances

horizontal spin and movement, increasing deception. This not only challenges hitters’

expectations but also highlights the critical role of pitch delivery mechanics in player

development and performance enhancement.

PITCH MIX

The second most notable change in Manaea’s 2024 campaign was his alteration in pitch

mix. Prior to the Chris Sale start, Manaea had predominantly relied on his best pitch, the sinker,

throwing it 38% of the time, with the remaining pitches distributed relatively evenly among his

five other offerings. A full breakdown of his pitch usage before July 25 can be seen here.

After observing Sale, Manaea drastically increased the usage of both his sinker and

sweeper for the remainder of the season. His usage of the sinker surged to over 55%, while his

sweeper usage also climbed to more than 22%, while effectively eliminating his slider and cutter

from his arsenal. The slider and cutter had previously combined for over 20% of his pitch mix,

but after the adjustment, Manaea shifted to a four-pitch arsenal that focused on his strengths. By

eliminating his cutter and slider, both of which are similar in spin and break to his sweeper, it

simplified the pitch-calling decisions and allowed him to pitch to his strength by focusing on the

development of the one pitch. His pitch breakdown after July 25, along with month-to-month

usage throughout the season, is shown here.

RESULTS

The three key statistics to focus on here are xwOBA, whiff rate, and hard hit rate.

Expected wOBA (xwOBA) provides a more accurate reflection of a pitcher’s performance than

traditional metrics such as batting average because it accounts for the quality of contact allowed.

Analyzing xwOBA rather than wOBA eliminates the effects of luck, defensive play, or other

variables outside the pitcher’s control. By focusing on xwOBA, we can better isolate the

pitcher’s true performance. Hard-hit rate indicates the pitcher’s ability to induce weaker contact

by minimizing the number of hard-hit balls allowed. A drop in hard-hit percentage suggests

improved pitch execution and a reduction in the batter's ability to make solid contact. Lastly,

whiff rate—rather than strikeout percentage (K%)—is more indicative of the pitcher’s ability to

generate swing-and-miss outcomes. K% only accounts for actual strikeouts, while whiff rate

gives a broader view of the pitcher's effectiveness in fooling hitters.

The changes in both Manaea’s arm slot and pitch arsenal yielded significant

improvements in his performance. Most of his overall statistics, as well as those for each individual pitch, showed marked improvement following the July 25 adjustment. Prior to July

25, Manaea's xwOBA was .333; after the adjustment, it dropped to .256. Additionally, his whiff

rate increased from 24.9% to 27.8%, while his hard-hit rate decreased significantly from 40.8%

to 33.2%.

Further evaluating Manaea’s success with respect to each pitch beginning with his most

frequently used offering, the sinker, we see dramatic improvement. The sinker’s hard-hit rate

dropped by 15%, its whiff rate increased by 4%, and its xwOBA improved significantly,

dropping from .355 prior to July 25 to .298 after the adjustment. This is extremely impressive

considering the drastic spike in usage. Manaea’s sweeper also saw notable improvements: its

hard-hit rate dropped by 5%, even though its whiff rate decreased by 12%; however, its xwOBA

remained largely unchanged, dropping from .224 to just .216. The change up showed a less

drastic improvement in terms of hard-hit rate (a decrease of just 1%, from 33% to 32%) and

whiff rate (an increase of 1%), but the real shift came in its xwOBA, which dropped

dramatically. Prior to the mechanical adjustments, Manaea’s changeup had an xwOBA of .349,

but post-adjustment, it plummeted to .213, a drop of over 100 points, making it a far more

effective pitch.

The fastball also demonstrated substantial improvement, especially in its ability to

generate swings and misses. The whiff rate on the fastball surged by more than 28%, rising from

20% to 48%, and its xwOBA dropped significantly, from .395 to .203. This marks a sharp

improvement in the pitch's overall effectiveness.

In addition to these changes, Manaea finished the 2024 season far better statistically than

his preseason projections in nearly every major category. According to FanGraphs, he finished the season with a 12-6 record over 32 starts and 181.2 innings pitched. He posted a 3.47 ERA, a

4.42 FIP, and his second highest single season WAR of 2.8, marking a clear improvement in both

his performance and value relative to expectations.

PLAYER SIMILARITY AND CONTRACT SITUATION

Manaea has a pretty unique story along with his blend of release point and arsenal. There

aren’t many like him in the game. The closest pitchers similar to Manaea based on pitch arsenal,

velocity, and movement in 2024, was Cole Irvin followed by Trevor Rogers with a match score

of .76 and .71 respectively. The match score is a tool used by Baseball Savant that measures the

similarity between two players based on the shortest connection, which can be thought of as an

'Erdős number' in a baseball context. Based on offensive results, the most similar to Manaea

were Buck Farer and Gavin Williams, each with a match score of .89.

In terms of market value, Sean Manaea, now a free agent after opting out of the final year

of his contract, is expected to secure a deal comparable to other mid-tier starting pitchers such as

José Berríos, Eduardo Rodríguez, Marcus Stroman, and Ranger Suárez. According to

Spotrac.com, Manaea's market value is projected at four years and just over $64.5 million, with

an average annual value (AAV) exceeding $16.1 million. This projection aligns with Manaea's

decision to opt out of his player option, given that his previous contract carried an AAV of $14

million.

Furthermore, the New York Mets extended a qualifying offer to Manaea, which this year

is set at one year, $21.05 million, based on the average salary of the top 125 earners in MLB

(DiComo, 2024). While Manaea did not accept this offer, the qualifying offer increases his cost

to potential suitors. Should he sign elsewhere, the Mets would receive draft compensation,

adding a layer of cost for any team looking to acquire him.

**EDIT AS OF DECEMBER 27, 2024:

Manaea has officially signed a 3 year $75 million deal with the Mets. The deal includes 23.25 million in deferred money to be paid out evenly from 2035-2044 according to Will Sammon of the Athletic. This lowers his overall present day value, and more notably CBT hit, to $66 million. Overall, Manaea took a pretty team friendly deal in my opinion to remain in a place he loved and had much success.

CONCLUSION

Sean Manaea’s transformation in 2024 stands as a testament to the power of adaptability

and continuous improvement in player development. His ability to make a dramatic mechanical

change midseason—adopting a lower arm slot and shifting his pitch mix—was not only a rare

adjustment but also one that proved to be a game-changer for both his individual performance

and the Mets’ pitching staff. By drawing inspiration from Chris Sale's success and working

tirelessly with pitching experts, Manaea reinvented himself, leading to a significant improvement

in key metrics such as xwOBA, whiff rate, and hard-hit rate. His revamped approach allowed

him to generate more movement on his pitches, induce weaker contact, and deceive hitters more

effectively, all of which played a critical role in his 2.8 WAR as well as the Mets' deep

postseason run.

Manaea’s 2024 season illustrates how a blend of data-driven insights, mechanical

adjustments, and mental resilience can rejuvenate a player’s career. His success story is a

compelling example of how pitchers, even those with significant major league experience, can

evolve in response to new challenges and opportunities. As Manaea looks to build on this momentum, his transformation offers valuable lessons in player development, emphasizing the

importance of staying open to change and continually refining one's craft, no matter the stage of

their career.

REFERENCES

Adler, D. (2024, October 19). Manaea has had Ohtani’s number -- but will he in Game 6?

MLB.com.

https://www.mlb.com/news/ohtani-manaea-nlcs-matchup-breakdown#:~:text=Here’s%20

how%20those%20two%20pitches,July%2025%20%E2%80%A6%2022%20degrees%20

since

Britton, T. (2024, August 28). How the Mets’ Sean Manaea is turning himself into chris sale -

with results to match. The New York Times.

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5728184/2024/08/28/mets-sean-manaea-chris-sale-pitc

hing/

DiComo, A. (2024, November 4). Mets extend qualifying offers to Alonso, Manaea, Severino.

MLB.com.

https://www.mlb.com/news/pete-alonso-sean-manaea-luis-severino-mets-qualifying-offer

Kennedy, S. (2024, October 17). Should the Giants try to (re)sign Sean Manaea?. McCovey

Chronicles.

https://www.mccoveychronicles.com/2024/10/17/24272821/mlb-should-the-giants-try-to-

re-sign-sean-manaea-2024-postseason-mets#:~:text=His%20extension%20has%20always%20been,some%20ridiculous%20push%2Dbroom%20sweeper.

Sammon, W. (2024, February 17). Inside Sean Manaea’s metamorphosis and the growth that

continues with the Mets. The New York Times.

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5282037/2024/02/17/mets-sean-manaea-growth/

Sean Manaea. FanGraphs Baseball. (n.d.).

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/sean-manaea/15873/stats?position=P

Spotrac. (n.d.). Sean Manaea: MLB Contracts & Salaries. spotrac.com.

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/player/market-value/_/id/19022/sean-manaea

Statcast Search. baseballsavant.com. (n.d.).

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=&hfAB=&hfGT=R%7C&hfPR=&

hfZ=&hfStadium=&hfBBL=&hfNewZones=&hfPull=&hfC=&hfSea=2024%7C&hfSit=

&player_type=pitcher&hfOuts=&hfOpponent=&pitcher_throws=&batter_stands=&hfSA

=&game_date_gt=&game_date_lt=&hfMo=&hfTeam=&home_road=&hfRO=&position

=&hfInfield=&hfOutfield=&hfInn=&hfBBT=&hfFlag=&pitchers_lookup%5B%5D=640

455&metric_1=&group_by=name&min_pitches=0&min_results=0&min_pas=0&sort_co

l=pitches&player_event_sort=api_p_release_speed&sort_order=desc#results