Why Swing Decisions and Contact Ability Will Be Increasingly Valued For much of the past decade, offensive player valuation across Major League Baseball has increasingly accepted an "all-or-nothing" ideology in which elevated strikeout rates are tolerated in exchange for power production. As long as a hitter could generate damage on contact, swing-and-miss and aggressive chase tendencies were often viewed as acceptable tradeoffs rather than inefficiencies. The gradual adop

How a refined pitch mix could transform the Mets' All-Star into a more consistent and reliable arm David Peterson's 2025 season told two wildly different stories. The left-hander earned his first All-Star selection after a dominant first half, posting a 3.06 ERA and 3.42 FIP through 18 starts. What followed was a massive struggle. Over his final 12 starts, Peterson's ERA drastically increased to 6.34, culminating in a brutal September where he posted a 9.72 ERA over 16.2 inn

Breaking down the contract and where both the Orioles and Mets go from here After a ton of uncertainty and a calculated bet on himself, Pete Alonso has landed with the Baltimore Orioles on a reported five-year, $155 million deal. I'm quite shocked, as my prediction was slightly off. As I said in my breakdown yesterday (seen here ), I correctly predicted the length of the deal in the 3-5 year range. However, I was off on my AAV. I predicted he would only get $30M in a three-y

How the Phillies secured their offensive anchor, the Dodgers addressed their biggest weakness, how the Mets proceed, and implications on the rest of the market Day 3 of the Winter Meetings saw the first major slew of moves that could get the rest of the market to start falling into place. The two big free agent signings of the day were Kyle Schwarber re-signing with the Phillies for 5 years, $150M and Edwin Díaz surprising everyone by signing with the Dodgers for 3 years, $6

Why theres more to the story behind Devin Williams 2025 season and why it makes perfect sense for the Mets Last week the Mets made their first major free agent signing of the offseason, inking reliever Devin Williams to a three-year, $51 million deal with $15 million deferred from 2036-2045 in $1.5 million annual increments. The contract also includes a $6 million signing bonus paid out evenly over the three years, lowering the present day value as the Mets continue to res

Why the Blue Jays might've overpaid for Cease and one change he can make to improve The Toronto Blue Jays made the first nine figure free agent signing of the offseason, inking starter Dylan Cease to a 7-year, $210M deal with $64M in deferrals. The present day value sits around $187.25M, still making it the largest free agent contract in franchise history. This surpasses the 5-year, $150M deal given to George Springer in 2021 equating to roughly $180M in 2025 dollars. While

With One Change he has True Starter Potential and is a Fit in the Rotation (Written in February 2025) This offseason David Stearns and the New York Mets signed pitcher Clay Holmes to a 3 year $38 million deal. Holmes had spent a little over the last 3 seasons with the Yankees as a reliever. In the last 3 seasons, he pitched to a 2.85 ERA over 189.2 innings and finished top 10 in the American League in Saves each year. The Mets, however, plan to use Holmes differently. The pl

A Data-Driven Analysis of Sean Manaea's Transformation (Written in November 2024) EXECUTIVE SUMMARY In 2024, Sean Manaea, a left-handed pitcher for the New York Mets, underwent a transformative adjustment that revitalized his career. In his first season with the Mets, Manaea made a rare in-season change to both his arm slot and pitch selection—modifications typically reserved for the offseason. His observation of Chris Sale's dominant performance against the Mets prompted th